The Coffee Shop

How these numbers were built: the U.S. coffee-shop count and market value come from World Coffee Portal’s Project Café USA; consumption and total consumer spend from the National Coffee Association; the establishment category and receipts from the U.S. Census Bureau (NAICS 722515, which also includes juice bars and ice-cream and snack shops, so it runs broader than coffee alone); wages from the BLS; survival rates from BLS Business Employment Dynamics; per-shop revenue, owner earnings, and the COGS / labor / net-margin ranges from Toast and specialty-coffee operator benchmarks (corroborated by Square and Specialty Coffee Association figures); equipment and build-out costs and the franchise path from published Franchise Disclosure Documents (Item 7); and sale prices, SDE margins, and multiples from BizBuySell and broker rules of thumb. Where credible sources disagree, we show the conservative range rather than the rosiest figure; for example, the U.S. shop count ranges from about 40,000 (coffee-specific) to 45,000+, and net-margin estimates run from ~7% to ~17%. These are starting assumptions; the moment you enter a real location’s rent, traffic, and ticket, your numbers should replace ours. Figures are current as of 2025-2026.

Operating benchmarks compiled from Toast and specialty-coffee operator cost-structure data (COGS ~25-35%, labor ~25-35%, net ~7-12%) and BizBuySell coffee-shop valuation benchmarks (2025), corroborated by the industry figures cited elsewhere in this model. Ranges are industry-typical, not guarantees; a specific cafe varies with rent, daypart mix, and food attach. Verify against real financials.